“Occupancies rose but rates dropped, so this month’s data offers something for optimists and pessimists,” said Ralf Garrison, director of MTRiP.  

The report also revealed that reservations taken in November for arrival anytime in November through April are currently up an aggregate of 27.9 percent ahead of last year, but the six-month outlook is still 3.5 percent behind last year.

“The good news is that this is the second month of positive reservation activity, a trend that appears to be continuing into December,” said Garrison. “The bad news is that the increase in occupancy is coming at the expense of rate, which has continued to drop. The robust demand from previous years has not returned and resorts are working hard to move the occupancy needle upward by attracting guests with lower rates.”

TRiP’s internal analysis of reservations taken in November included some noteworthy patterns.  

“February’s absolute change in on-the-books occupancy increased 2.1 percent during November and it has caught up with last year. We also see that January is following the same pattern,” explained Tom Foley, MTRiP research analyst. “December and March are historically the high demand months and they are filling up more slowly, suggesting that consumers remain price sensitive.”        

Garrison also emphasized that, “this season is playing out on a stage with anemic economic indicators but those indicators are considerably less volatile than last season at this time.”

December reservations are currently down 3.7 percent compared to last December and December rates are down 9.1 percent compared to December 2008. While advance bookings for arrival in January and February led the positive pace in prior months, the trend appears to be spreading across each of the advance booking months (December-April) and is supported by the short-lead bookings that improved November occupancy.